Baselines: measure before you change anything

Most people start a new routine and then start paying attention. That’s backwards. You need to know what normal looks like before you change anything, or you have nothing to compare against.

What a baseline is

A baseline is a record of how you’re doing under your usual routine, before you change anything. It answers one question: what’s normal for me?

It’s personal. Your normal sleep, energy or recovery isn’t the same as anyone else’s, and comparing yourself to averages or other people tells you very little about whether a change is working for you.

Pick what to track

Track the things you said you want to change in How to tell if something is actually working. Keep the list short: two or three measures you can track every day without it becoming a chore. A few examples:

• Sleep: time to fall asleep, how often you wake up, how rested you feel.
• Energy: a simple daily rating, or when your energy dips.
• Training: how a usual workout feels, or what you can lift or run.
• Mood or stress: a quick daily rating.

Two kinds of measures

• Subjective: how you feel, rated the same way every day. A simple 1–10 scale works.
• Objective: something measured, like a sleep tracker, a training log or a step count.

Use both where you can. Subjective ratings capture what you actually care about; objective data keeps you honest on days your mood colours everything.

How long to track

Long enough to see your normal ups and downs. A single week can be thrown off by one bad night or a stressful few days, so aim for two weeks where you can. The goal is to see the range, not just one number.

Keep conditions steady

While you’re building a baseline, don’t start anything new. Keep your usual routine, eat the way you usually do, and track at roughly the same time each day. Changing things during your baseline defeats the purpose.

Write down what else happens

Note anything unusual: a late night, travel, illness, a big week at work. These explain the outliers, so you don’t mistake a bad week for your normal.

What you end up with

At the end you should be able to say something like: “I usually rate my energy between 5 and 7, and I wake up once or twice most nights.” That’s your reference point. Every change you test gets compared against it.

The checklist

• Two or three measures picked, tied to what I want to change
• At least one subjective and one objective measure where possible
• Tracked daily, at about the same time
• Ran for about two weeks
• No new routines started during the baseline
• Unusual days noted
• I can describe my normal in one or two sentences

Next up: a lot of baseline data now comes from a device on your wrist or finger. What wearables can and can’t tell you covers how far to trust it.